Housing Affordability Trends in the Seven US Swing States

With the nation’s attention shifting in earnest to the upcoming presidential election in November, the contours of our electoral politics suggest that the contest will likely come down to just a small handful of states. As the map currently stands, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be decisive in determining which party controls 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue come January.

Of the many issues at the top of voters’ minds, housing costs are among the most pressing. In this briefing, we will utilize Zillow data to explore how home prices and rents have trended in these seven toss-up states compared to the rest of the country. These data will help shed light on whether housing affordability is a greater or lesser concern in the political battlegrounds than in the nation as a whole.

Home Prices

While home prices were already reaching all-time highs during the lead-up to 2020, the pandemic and its ensuing aftershocks sent valuations into another stratosphere. Between more housing demand flowing to affordable metros, historically low interest rates in 2021 and early 2022, and a mortgage lock-in effect that has squeezed values higher in 2023 and 2024, the housing market has absorbed an unprecedented amount of pricing pressure over the past four years. Nationally, home valuations have risen by an average of 45.0% between January 2020 and July 2024. Within the seven swing states, it is a mixed bag of results, but the pattern is clear — home prices have risen by more in the political battlegrounds than they have nationally.

Across the seven states in question, Zillow tracks a total of 182 different metropolitan areas. Of these 182 markets, 112 (61.8%) have seen home price growth greater than the national average since the beginning of 2020. Narrowing in on just the 20-largest metros in these states, the high-growth share skews even higher — with 14 (70%) seeing prices grow by more than 45.0% over the same time.

Among these major metros, Charlotte (+59.3%) led the pack with the most home price growth, with Atlanta (+56.4%), Phoenix (+55.9%), Durham (54.9%), and Winston (+54.7) trailing closely behind. On the other end of the spectrum, Pittsburgh has seen the most muted gains (+32.4%), with Detroit (+39.2%), Milwaukee (+41.3%), Madison (+42.7%), and Harrisburg (+42.7%). Perhaps predictably, regional patterns are evident amongst the high- and low-growth markets, with Sun Belt markets seeing above-average gains and the Midwest and Rust Belt trailing behind.  

Rents

For rental prices, it is a smaller set of metros covered by Zillow’s tracking — but the trends remain the same, if not even more striking. Nationally, rents have risen by an average of 32.2% since the start of the pandemic. For reference, average wages have only grown 23.3% over the same period, illustrating how much affordability has deteriorated. Meanwhile, 45 out of 55 (81.8%) of the tracked rental markets in swing states have seen cumulative home price growth above the national average since the start of the pandemic. Within the 20 largest metro areas, there are, once again, 14 markets with above-average growth and six (6) falling slightly behind. While Pittsburgh (+24.8%), Philadelphia (+26.1%), and Milwaukee (+28.4%) again find themselves on the low-growth end of the totem pole, it is a more diverse set of markets at the top, with Scranton (+45.5%), Greensboro (+45.2%), and Winston (+44.4%) leading the way.

Analysis

While the two major political parties do not agree on much, there is a uniform consensus that the erosion of housing affordability is a paramount concern. The causes to blame and the solutions proposed are, however, an entirely different story. What is clear heading into the election is that housing affordability will likely resonate more — not less — in the toss-up states than elsewhere throughout the country.