July 28 | The Lead Indicator

Europe’s Newest Agreement No Panacea | Europe's newest plan to stave off a broader debt crisis may not be scaleable and flexible enough to offset the vagaries of bond investor sentiment, Sam Chandan offers in his assessing the latest developments on the Continent. The possibility of a Eurobond may address the crisis in a more robust manner, but will also add to upward pressure on Treasury yields in the United States:

July 25 | The Chief Economist on GlobeSt

Reading the Job Market: A Technical Note on the ADP and BLS Reports | As fundamentals and transaction values pull further away from underlying job growth trends, it becomes increasingly important for commercial real estate market participants to keep tabs on the latter. With July’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report less than two weeks away, Sam Chandan offers a technical assessment of alternative metrics. While the ADP report is well-correlated with the BLS data over time, there is considerable noise in the measure's month-to-month relationship to the official jobs tally.

July 21 | The Lead Indicator

Lessons for the US from the Italian Debt Crisis | Dr Sam Chandan describes how Europe’s intractable sovereign debt crisis has engulfed Italy, forcing the adoption of $56 billion in austerity measures that are projected to bring the country’s budget into balance in 2014. Italy is making more progress towards fiscal discipline than the United States, where policymakers are deadlocked over whether to cut back while the recovery remains fragile. The research shows that, under some circumstances, moves towards fiscal discipline can be expansionary.

Interpreting Divergent CRE Price Indices

In Manhattan, Washington, DC, San Francisco and other cardinal markets, the consensus at mid-year holds that commercial real estate investment and credit market conditions have improved markedly since last summer. The generally consistent headline investment, credit, and fundamentals trends nonetheless mask a substantial and increasing divergence between several of the market’s most oft-cited pricing metrics.

July 14 | The Lead Indicator

The Labor Market and Real Estate Investment | Dr Sam Chandan discusses the most recent employment report and the fragile state of the national economic and labor market recoveries. Dr Chandan explains: “Wavering confidence in the private market’s capacity to deliver strong and consistent job gains—irrespective of the reasons—are feeding calls for more support from Washington. But if the policy and market uncertainty stemming from government intervention is part of the drag on business hiring, another round of short-term programs may prove counterproductive.”

July 14 | Multifamily Executive

Corporate Ladder: Top Economist Launches New Research Firm | by Jonathan Holin | In this interview with Multifamily Executive magazine, Dr Sam Chandan explains his plans for Chandan Economics and gives insight into the past, present, and future of the multifamily sector. In describing the key challenges for the sector, he cites rising interest rates, the sector’s changing relationship to housing, and reform of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.